It is possible that we will soon see the “Wagnerists” at the forefront. Perhaps even as a separate unit in the army structure. Maybe even with a special status.
Photo by: Alexander KOTS
The structures of PMC “Wagner” today are widely scattered throughout the world. Some people are in Africa (Yevgeny Prigozhin himself spoke about this in one of his recent video messages), another in Belarus (as agreed with Alexander Lukashenko) and a third in Russia. They all do their jobs. But it is obvious that in the event of a change in leadership, both the structure of the organization and the tasks assigned to it can change.
We have collected several options for how the story of the “orchestra” will develop further.
1. JOIN THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE
After the armed rebellion in June, it was proposed that Wagner’s PMC could enter the Ministry of Defense as a structure. Prigozhin then refused and went to Belarus. Most of the commanders are with him. But, according to some reports, not all. However, some of the fighters agreed to sign a contract with the Russian military department.
There was no response to this proposal. And such a trained and organized team in the Ministry of Defense would surely be happy to see and use their experience in solving the tasks of a special operation. So we may soon see the “Wagnerists” at the forefront. Perhaps even as a separate unit in the army structure. Maybe even with a special status.
2. STAYING IN BELARUS
After the armed rebellion on June 24, “Wagner” together with Yevgeny Prigozhin left for Belarus; this was the initiative of the President of the Republic, Alexander Lukashenko. Then it was said that the fighters and commanders of the PMCs would be instructors of the Belarusian army. Actually, that was how it happened.
“I think that one part will continue to fulfill the duties that they have assumed to the Belarusian state in terms of training and transfer of experience,” said Alexei Dzermant, a political scientist and senior researcher at the Institute of Philosophy of the Belarusian Academy of Sciences. an interview with KP.
And most likely, Lukashenka will try to do everything possible to keep the “musicians” at home, especially since a very nervous neighbor Poland is literally behind the fence.
– Since the Wagner PMC moved to Belarus, the Polish media write every day about the Wagner PMC. They are very afraid of him. And how many statements by the American and French authorities that Wagner’s PMC represents a huge threat – explained Sergei Markov, director of the Institute for Political Studies.
3. GO TO AFRICA
Wagner has long been successfully fulfilling tasks on the black continent, where he protects the interests of Russia and … the African countries themselves. Including Niger, where there has recently been a military coup and the new government is the main target of the West in general and of France in particular, which dreams of regaining its influence in the country.
“The French are actively trying to provoke a war against Niger,” Vladimir Shapovalov, a political scientist and deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics at the Moscow State Pedagogical University, explains on Komsomolskaya Pravda radio. – It must be taken into account that the PMC “Wagner” is an important element of the containment system of the French colonial expansion in Africa.
“Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world, how will you support mercenaries?” – the curious reader will ask. “It has uranium and much more”, we will answer.
4. COLLAPSE OR SPLIT INTO AN INDEPENDENT TEAM
Fighters and commanders are proud people, and sometimes mercenary and conceited. Therefore, there may be those who want not to “work for their uncle”, but to open their own PMC and solve problems on their own. This happens after a person has drunk glory in certain battles and has completed more than one difficult mission.
Therefore, there is no guarantee that we will not see five or a dozen startups, in the summary of which there will be a line: “former PMC Wagner.”
