On the day of the start of the new Formula 1 season, we traditionally collect bold and non-obvious, but at the same time quite realistic forecasts from the authors of the section for the 2024 championship.
Lev Dorogov: Pérez will be fired during the season
At the moment, there is no more obvious candidate for dismissal in the platoon than Pérez. The Mexican failed miserably last season, often losing to drivers from Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren and Aston Martin who had more modest technology (we are talking, of course, about Alonso). If Checo continues in the same vein this year, it will be almost impossible for him to keep his place at Red Bull.
Taking into account Helmut Marko’s love of personnel changes during the season, as well as the presence of Dan Ricciardo in hand (in the junior team), there is a high probability that, in the event of another Perez failure, the direction of the “bulls” He will not hesitate to throw the Mexican out the door without waiting for the championship to end. What can we say if Helmut Marko himself directly states that the 2024 season is a good opportunity for Tsunoda and Ricciardo to get a promotion to the main team?
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Dmitry Zakharchenko: McLaren drivers will start fighting
Already in the 2023 season, situations arose more than once in which McLaren management had to intervene in the drivers’ struggle and order them to maintain positions or change them. Even then, the drivers reacted to such orders with obvious reluctance, and in the 2024 season, both Norris and Piastri will have even less desire to give in to their teammate.
Last year, Oscar was a newcomer and did not seriously challenge Norris’ leadership of the team. Now the Australian has a whole season behind him; He is hardly willing to accept the role of number two so easily. It will be even more unpleasant for Lando to let his partner pass. The Briton, who had long been considered a young driver with a more experienced partner, now became that more experienced partner himself. A loss to Piastri will be painful for him, especially if he receives a direct order to lose Oscar.
Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris
Photo: Chris Graythen/Getty Images
Anton Kolov: Sainz will return to Red Bull
Sainz learned in the off-season that his contract with Ferrari would not be renewed. But it is unlikely that Charles was surprised by this news; He and his father should have been preparing plan “B” a long time ago. Immediately afterwards, some experts said that the Spaniard would take Lewis Hamilton’s place at Mercedes: he supposedly has a non-conflict personality and will become an excellent co-driver. Others responded that the Germans have Andrea Kimi Antonelli and there is no reason to bet on Sainz, plus since Ferrari parted ways with Carlos for Lewis, why would Mercedes pick him up?
But if not Mercedes, who? Of course, the native Red Bull, with the fastest car to date. Sergio Pérez greatly disappointed the management last season, the form of the elderly and unmotivated Ricciardo (Daniel is 34 years old) does not inspire optimism, and the young Liam Lawson, although he excelled in several races, still needs more work. Therefore, Carlos is an excellent candidate for a position in the Austrian car. The Sainzs just need to show a little tact and humility during the negotiations. In the end, Ricciardo did it.
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Vitaly Krysanov: Hamilton will quarrel with Wolf and threaten to leave
I bet that Lewis Hamilton’s relationship with Toto Wolff will deteriorate so much during the season that the driver will even openly hint at the possibility of ending the collaboration early (he, however, will not leave early and will finish his last season in Mercedes). All the prerequisites for this are there: it is logical that the team’s attention will shift to future leader George Russell, but it is unlikely that the seven-time world champion will accept a supporting role, especially if the new car really turns out to be very fast. There should also be discontent on the part of Wolf, who is probably deep down very offended by Lewis for leaving for Ferrari.
Friction between the two pillars is all but guaranteed, and the only question is how long they can maintain a normal working relationship, or at least the semblance of one. Of course, both Hamilton and Wolff are professionals of the highest level, but they both have outrageous egos… In general, we are waiting for a spark – there is a lot of gasoline vapor here.
Toto Wolff, George Russell and Lewis Hamilton
Photo: Peter Fox/Getty Images
Anton Kolov: Audi will sign Pérez
Of course, when we talk about the potential composition of Audi, a sea of rumors comes to mind about the contract already signed with Carlos Sainz. But it’s not that simple. Having tasted victory, it is unlikely that the Spaniard will want to get involved in a long-term construction project, which, even if he starts to win, will not be quick. But Checo Pérez may well be satisfied with this option.
It is clear that Sergio does not really want to leave F1, but, whatever they say, he will have to accept a reduction. Having an impressive sponsorship package and decent experience, he is unlikely to prefer the lowly Williams. But we are quite capable of reaching an agreement with Audi. The Mexican automotive market and affiliate money are good cards to play this game. The Germans will obviously not object to such an experienced driver, who can also suggest a couple of tricks from Red Bull. And at Hinvil, Cheko is well known for his performances for Sauber.
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Maxim Vershinin: “Haas” will completely fail
Haas confidently claims that it is the outsider for the 2024 season, which could well be the team’s last in Formula 1. After the team failed in the previous championship and then suddenly decided to part ways with its permanent leader, it is difficult to expect an improvement in performance; It seems that the new season will become a year of reforms and reorganizations that can hardly be combined. with progress and regular scoring of points.
Everything indicates that Formula 1 is becoming an expensive pleasure for Gene Haas and brings more problems than results: it is possible that the founder and owner of the team will decide to get rid of the problematic asset. There are no results, costs are increasing, so what’s the point of continuing? In addition, there is an excellent opportunity to exit the game with minimal losses by agreeing to the sale of Haas to the Andretti racing empire: both parties will benefit, in addition to Formula 1, which at the same time will receive an attractive new team and maintain its presence. of the American in the series team, and will not have to expand the peloton.
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Alexander Kozhevnikov: Ferrari will win more races than in the previous two seasons
A couple of factors speak in favor of this. Firstly, the pace of the Italians in the preseason tests. According to some experts, they have almost reached the level of Red Bull (and The Race colleagues even place them in first place in their forecasts for the season). Of course, we don’t really believe in Ferrari’s title, but they can certainly win more than in the last two years. Let’s add to this the incredible motivation of the pilots. One must prove himself before a 2025 contract, the second must prove to the team that he is truly their leader before the arrival of the Great and Terrible Hamilton.
Furthermore, we do not forget the possible problems of Red Bull. The team clearly decided to step aside to increase the “upgradability” of its car in 2025, but a change in concept could have unpredictable consequences. Newey, of course, is a genius, but first and foremost he is a man and he can make mistakes too. And more than one Mercedes engineer has already been burned by Zeropods, so the probability of a mistake here is quite high.
Ferrari could surprise you in 2024. And in this case, I think that by the end of the season, almost all fans will stop asking themselves “Why does Lewis need this?”
Ferrari may have more to celebrate this year
Photo: Clive Mason/Getty Images
Evgeniy Kustov: Alpin will change direction again
The French had a bad time in the off-season: after radically redesigning the car, they took a step back, and this despite the fact that before that their performance was much lower than what would be expected from a factory team. Consequently, the entire current season will become a test of patience for Renault: are they willing to trust the updated management of the racing team, are they smart enough to give carte blanche and not cut in the heat of the moment? Previously, this was not always characteristic of the French; It is worth remembering at least the controversial dismissal of Otmar Szafnauer in 2023.
If Alpin does not improve quickly, if its drivers fight for access to the second segment and rare points, then I am not sure that Bruno Famen will keep his place. And it’s also good that there are new technical regulations ahead for 2026, otherwise Renault could go crazy and put the team up for sale.
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Maxim Vershinin: “Aston Martin” will win a race
Fernando Alonso pleasantly surprised all his fans in 2023, starting the season with a series of podiums, followed by periodic finishes in the same top 3 or at least races completed in the points zone. Probably, this was not Aston Martin’s highest pace in terms of preparing updates, but, be that as it may, last season turned out to be the most productive for the Spaniard in recent years. It seems that the two-time Formula 1 champion more or less got the team right.
It’s obvious that Fernando’s third title is not in sight, but why doesn’t Alonso aim for at least another Grand Prix victory? The veteran has speed, so if the Aston Martin car turns out to be good, why not dream of one or several won races, which will help him finish his career beautifully or increase his stock and negotiate another contract lucrative? Maybe with a Mercedes, why not?
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