There’s just over a month left until the start of the NHL season, which means it’s time to share expectations for next year. Of course, the main question that worries the Russian public is: how many goals will Alexander Ovechkin get closer to Wayne Gretzky’s eternal record?
In this article we will tell you what to expect from the leading sniper of our time and explain how many goals the Washington captain will score.
What do they bet on in North America?
Before moving on to the calculations, let’s see what is expected abroad. Thus, the bookmakers are betting that Ovechkin will finish the new season with 35-40 goals to his name.
Athletic gives the exact data: the Russian will play 78 games and score 42 goals.
The NHL’s official website simply said Ovi would score 88 points. Taking into account that the Washington captain scores more goals than he assists, it would be logical to speak of 45 to 50 goals.
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What have we learned from the past?
Almost a year ago, the author of this material already calculated all the statistics in Ovi, trying to predict how many the Russian would score. Then I bet on 47 goals and I was only wrong by five. He seems pretty good, right? Especially considering that the striker missed four games due to grief in the family, this could not be predicted.
Alexander Ovechkin
Photo: nhl.com
In order not to torment you again with boring statistics, we will immediately take all the necessary numbers from the old material. For those who are interested, you can look at the old material.
You can see where the author got it wrong and what he got right:
Failure at the beginning is not an obstacle for Ovechkin. How close will the Russian superstar be to Gretzky?
The data from there is still relevant. The only thing that has changed over the past year is the total number of games and goals, but Ovechkin’s average performance has remained the same at 0.61.
Statistics by year:
SeasonNumber of matchesNumber of goalsGoal averageNumber of games lostSeason 2005/200681520,641Season 2006/200782460,560Season 2007/200882650,790Season 2005/200979560,713Season 200 9/20 1 072500.6910Season-2010/201179320.413Season-2011/201278380.494Season-2012/201348320 ,670Season-2013 /201478510.654Season-2014/201581530.651Season-2015/201679500.633Season-2016/201782330.40Season-2017/2018824 90.60Season-2018 /2019815 10,631Season-2019/202068480.711Season-2020/ 202145240.53112021/202277500.6552022/202373420.589 Career13478220.6156
And most importantly: the worst and best scenarios.
All possible results in terms of performance:
Worst state of healthAverage state of healthBest state of healthWorst performance263133Average performance404850Best performance526265
It turns out that Ovechkin will finish the season with a score between 26 and 65 goals. But this is only the beginning.
Ovechkin’s body gives up
Now let’s introduce a new variable that stood out last season. Injuries. We touched on a similar topic in a previous article, but now, after the 2022/2023 season, there are new reasons to talk about it. This time more thoroughly.
From 2015 to 2021, Ovechkin, in principle, was not injured. But in each of the last three seasons, he has consistently taken damage.
In the 2020/2021 season, the Russian missed seven games due to a lower body injury. At the same time, in another match, the captain of the capitals played only nominally: he came out for 39 seconds and ended his participation in the match.
Alexander Ovechkin during the match
Photo: nhl.com
The following year, Ovi was sidelined for three games, this time due to an upper body injury. Finally, last season the Washington forward was unable to take the ice in five games. He missed two due to a lower-body injury and three due to an upper-body injury.
An obvious fact: even Ovechkin’s great body is slowly losing health. But! The most notable thing about these statistics is not only the presence of injuries, but also when the hockey player was most frequently injured. Of 15 matches, Ovechkin missed 13 in April-May, at the end of the championship. He sometimes completely missed the end of the season. He missed another game in January 2023 and the other in March 2023.
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You can speculate on this topic all you want, but we will summarize the possible reasons: the most likely. It seems that the Ovi body really bears the load every year more. This could explain why the Russian regularly misses late-season games. Regardless of whether Washington made the playoffs or not.
Let’s add to this the fact that last season, due to injuries, Ovechkin began to fly not only at the end, but also in the second half of the championship.
Alexander Ovechkin in a game for the Washington Capitals
Photo: nhl.com
The obvious option: little by little, even the body of the iron Ovechkin will cease to be “exported”. It turns out that age still takes its toll. And at the start of the 2023/2024 season, Ovechkin will already be 38 years old.
We cannot rule out some old wound, whether from above or below. But it is already difficult to say something specific. We won’t guess here.
What do we have as a result?
It is worth hoping that Ovechkin will not be able to carry out the championship from bell to bell in the new season. Most likely, at best, she will miss the same five games as last season due to injury. That is, we must start from 77 meetings. In this case, the worst result should be 30 goals, the best – 61 goals. But do not forget that Ovi can “fly” for a longer period.
Washington is naming its captain
We must not forget about how the “capital” team changed in the off-season. The team was led by new coach Spencer Carbery, who had never coached in the NHL before.
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In general, Ovechkin reacts well to the change in the team’s coach. Of the six cases of changes in four, the forward in the first season showed better results than last year (from 46 to 65, from 32 to 38, from 38 to 32, from 51 to 53, from 49 to 51, from 48 to 24). But we must remember that Carbury is a beginner. Therefore, “Washington” can be expected to flop early in the season. Or its end, since the Capitals’ roster is one of the oldest in the league.
The question is how Carbury himself relates to Ovi’s record. Obviously, the club will not risk achieving such a historic and profitable milestone, but it is still unclear how the new coach will use the Russian and whether he will find a suitable role. Can Washington ensure regular and convenient delivery of the puck to the captain? Will you be able to set the game at most?
Can Ovechkin beat Gretzky’s record?
Photo: nhl.com
We must also remember that the previous coaches had a better squad. The Capitals wasted the offseason and now it remains a mystery who will help Ovechkin score. Evgeny Kuznetsov remains, but he may remain depressed. Nicklas Bäckström, Tom Wilson and John Carlson stay, but they are all injured…
Now it’s hard to imagine who exactly will be in the top three in attack with Ovi. But they still need time to play well and adapt to the coach’s plans.
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Things are clearly worse for Washington than at any time in the last decade. This will undoubtedly be another reason for Ovechkin’s declining performance.
Result
What can we say? Given the range between 30 and 61 (what we got in the injury paragraph), it’s worth adding a point about Ovi’s overall performance decline. There are reasons to hope that he definitely won’t surpass a personal goalscorer. [верхнюю] bar, so his average will range between 0.53 (the worst of the last three seasons) and 0.61 (career average). That is, the player must score 41 to 47 goals.
Add to this the takeaways from Washington’s offseason and the team’s new coach. It’s hard to translate into numbers, but it’s clear that Ovi will score fewer goals than last season. At the same time, his performance should not yet drop drastically: his strengths in the form of killer shooting, as well as the unlimited trust of management and team members are still with him.
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Perhaps it is worth betting on a range of 37 to 40 goals. As an author, I will raise the bar to 38 goals.
Thanks to this, Ovi, who is 72 goals behind Gretzky, can get closer to only 34 goals. Of course, even these numbers are approximate, so it’s a prediction. Many things simply cannot be predicted – last season proved that.
Who knows, maybe the Washington captain will decide to surprise all the fans with his “last dance.”
Or will Ovi still not be able to overcome numerous problems?
