Will Ronaldo say goodbye to EURO 2024? Analysts’ breakdowns for the first quarter-final
Kirill Zakatchenko July 5, 2024, 07:00 Moscow time Audio version: Your browser does not support the audio element.
Spain will reach an agreement with Germany, Portugal with France. What great signs!
The long-awaited day of the Euro quarter-finals has arrived. July 5th: two games at the same time with interesting posters. First we will see a remake of the Euro 2008 final and then the Euro 2016 final.
Dmitry Bazhanov analyzed the performance of the best teams at the Euro:
Euro 2024 is a tournament of scarecrows. It’s time for the main question to be answered.
Spain – Germany
Spain vs Germany is the perfect match for the first quarter-final. Although someone will probably regret that such opponents did not meet in the final. The Spaniards are rightly among the main favourites for Euro 2024. In the group stage, Luis de la Fuente’s team managed to win three out of three games and did not concede a single goal. They secured first place in the quartet earlier than expected, so the coaching staff sent a reserve team for the final match. In the playoffs, the Spaniards lost first place in the match against Georgia, but in the end won by a crushing score of 4-1. So far, De la Fuente’s team has only conceded one goal, and even that was sent into their own net.
Spain is a very difficult opponent for Germany. Suffice it to say that the Bundesteam has not beaten the Spaniards since 1988 (we are talking about official matches). In 2008, the Germans lost to their rivals in the final of the European Championship and in 2010, in the semi-finals of the World Cup. Both matches ended with a score of 1:0. In the current European Championship, Germany only conceded two goals (one of them an own goal). In the round of 16, they defeated Denmark (2:0), even though the match was interrupted for almost half an hour due to weather conditions.
Team Germany
Photo: Shaun Botterill/Getty Images
According to bookmakers, the chances of the opponents winning in regular time are approximately equal. The odds of Spain’s success are 2.80, of Germany’s victory – 2.85, of a draw – 3.20. You can bet on the Spaniards’ victory, taking into account extra time and penalties, with a coefficient of 1.90, and on a similar victory of the Germans – with a coefficient of 1.92. Opta analysts believe that the probability of Spain reaching the semi-finals is 52%, and Germany – 48%. According to Football Meets Data, Spain’s chances of qualifying for the semi-finals are also slightly higher (54% versus 46%).
Germans and Spaniards exchange barbs:
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Portugal – France
A few days ago, the Portuguese literally reached the quarter-finals of the European Championship. To do so, I had to suffer in a match with the Slovenians. Goals? No, we haven’t heard. The teams thought something like that and drew goalless. Although Portugal had a great chance in extra time, Cristiano Ronaldo failed to beat Jan Oblak from the penalty spot. The star striker redeemed himself in the penalty shoot-out, but he was not the protagonist. Portuguese goalkeeper Diogo Costa saved three out of three shots and sent the Slovenian team home.
Pepe and Cristiano Ronaldo are veterans of the Portuguese national team
Photo: Justin Setterfield/Getty Images
France’s match in the round of 16 also did not please with spectacular play. Didier Deschamps’ team made a lot of shots (shots from different distances), but very rarely hit the target. It is not surprising that in such a situation the French scored only with the help of a rebound from the opponent. However, this goal turned out to be the winning one, so Kylian Mbappé continues to fight for the trophy. In 2016, France lost to its current rival in the final of the local European Championship, and Ronaldo was injured in the first half. How will it be this time?
Bookmakers consider France to be the favourites for the upcoming match. The odds for a victory in regular time are 2.40 (for a victory taking into account extra time and penalties – 1.65). You can bet on a victory for Portugal with an odds of 3.55 (for a victory taking into account extra time and penalties – 2.25). Football Meets Data considers France to have a much better chance of qualifying for the semi-finals than Portugal (64% vs. 36%). What about Optá? According to its analysts, the probability of a victory for France is 54% and for Portugal 46%.
