Armenian head Pashinyan said that Armenia can no longer rely on Russia as an ally.
Photo: REUTERS
Things have recently emerged in Yerevan that are unpleasant for Moscow. Then the Armenian leaders talk about the uselessness of the CSTO and call their representative. They argue that the decisions of the International Criminal Court may be legal for them. And then, from the mouth of their prime minister, they report that the Russians did not fulfill their allied duty towards this proud Transcaucasian republic, did not protect it.
At Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda we discussed the issue with the director of the Center for the Study of Political and Military Conflicts, Andrei Klintsevich.
– The head of Armenia Pashinyan, in an interview with Politico, said that Armenia can no longer rely on Russia as an ally to ensure its security. And now they are conducting exercises with the Americans in Transcaucasia. Maybe we should have fit in when the disaster in Karabakh began in 2020?
– I was immersed in these negotiations and participated in the Russia-Armenia-Azerbaijan trilateral meeting. I watched the first 11 meetings from the inside. I felt like we were reaching an agreement. This was the development of the meeting of the three presidents, which influenced all subsequent events. And to stop the conflict. This refers to the Armenian leader’s claims that Russia is not saving them. Therefore, Baku is also an important ally for us, also in the field of logistics. Our task is not to “fit in” to conflicts, but to stop them. What exactly happened? Without dialogue, there is no solution to the conflict.
– Were there many controversial topics?
– Very. Many Azerbaijani territories were occupied by Armenians after the early phases of the conflict. There were also many other problems.
– Three years have passed and now we hear anti-Russian statements from the head of a CSTO member country.
– In the region there is a complicated tangle of six countries that have one or another claims against each other. These are not just mutual reproaches between Yerevan and Baku. Its neighbors, Tbilisi, Ankara, Tehran and, well, Moscow also have questions. And since many claims are justified, it is impossible to do without certain concessions. At some point, the Armenian side rejected negotiations, which largely explains the armed conflict.
Andrey Klintsevich
Photo: Personal page of the hero of the publication on the social network.
– Detained with the help of Russia?
– Yes. Then two tripartite groups were created at the level of deputy prime ministers, which made operational decisions and reported to the presidents on this set of issues: the delimitation of borders (there are many disputed villages there) and the unblocking of transport links in the South Caucasus. Restoration of the Soviet railway and road system. It is important that Yerevan maintain access to Nagorno-Karabakh. And for Baku it is important to have direct access to Nakhichevan. To his enclave, from which the Aliyev presidential clan comes. And this route through the Azerbaijani city of Garadiz was the basis of the agreements. 45 kilometers along the Araks River. Traffic had to be restored there and the Armenian side did not spend any money on the restoration. The Azerbaijani side participated. And the Russian side, as the main holder of the assets of the South Caucasus railways, was to build a highway there. But, having lost the diplomatic option for the development of this story, the Azerbaijani side began to block the transport corridor to Nagorno-Karabakh, to encourage Armenia to meet halfway.
– What does this all mean?
– If the parties do not speak and do not agree, then there is the possibility of a new conflict. And Russia, as a third party, will not be able to stop them. Furthermore, Armenia declares some kind of revenge.
– How will it look?
“They believe they were ill-prepared for conflict before, but now they have bought weapons all over the world. And we are ready to take on some challenge again.
– Who benefits from this?
– To the Americans. They are not interested in the situation calming down in this region. Georgia’s participation in the trilateral group, which included three deputy prime ministers and six foreign ministers from all countries in the region, was blocked. From the outside they told him directly: you will not participate in the negotiations. The United States now sees an opportunity to influence the situation through Armenia and reignite the conflict there. Involve the Turks and Iranians, and some other parties, in it. And try to discredit the CSTO by saying: well, look, Armenia is at war, but no help is provided.
– Are there only advantages for Americans?
– For now yes. And his largest embassy, with 1,000 people, is there for a reason.
– Is it true that Baku initially accepted not all of Nagorno-Karabakh, but part of it?
– Our group dealt with logistics, we did not discuss territorial issues.
– Is it possible for Türkiye to participate in a military conflict?
– You will be surprised, but Nagorno-Karabakh in this situation takes a secondary place. Many people think that this was the main obstacle, but no. For Baku, access to Nakhichevan is paramount. Baku has already spent money and built a railway and a road to the Armenian border. For now, they only have access through Iran. Many questions also arise about the northern areas of present-day Armenia captured as a result of the first war. There are gold mines there.
– And what will happen in the end with Karabakh?
– Yerevan also does not recognize Nagorno-Karabakh! Along the same lines as, for example, Moscow recognizes Abkhazia or South Ossetia.
– Why didn’t you recognize him?
– I don’t understand your position very well. They have it like a pendulum. After all, all three presidents agreed: no, Pashinyan will go to the EU, with Macron’s participation. Maybe they think the more leverage the better? But Armenia is very dependent on Russia economically. And it is part of the Eurasian Economic Union. We have many investments there. In reality, they are in a circle of enemies. The only one that supports Yerevan is Moscow. And they are involved in diplomatic escapades, such as recalling a CSTO representative or sending a document recognizing the decisions of the International Criminal Court to parliament for ratification.
-If the conflict takes on heated forms again, will we intervene this time?
“I hope we will take a balanced position and act as peacemakers.”
– If they leave the CSTO, shouldn’t we intervene?
– By the way, yes. But when Pashinyan and company start having new problems, they will come to us again. And we will have to bring them back to the negotiating table.
