Enric Fernández, director of Strategic Planning and Studies at Caixabank, has pointed out that by 2024 Spain’s GDP growth will be around 1.9%, which would mean “some slowdown” compared to the results of 2023. The previous year closed with an increase of six more points, of 2.5%. Furthermore, Caixabank predicts that the European Central Bank (ECB) will lower interest rates. In his opinion, this lower GDP growth will be motivated, in his opinion, by the impact of the drop in interest rates, which has become evident at the end of 2023.
Fernández also considers that the GDP will grow less due to the weakness of the euro zone, which “holds down” Spain, and because the increase in tourism turnover will not be as high as in 2023. The positive part is a possible decrease in inflation , which would increase the purchasing power of families, and also believes that the “tractor” effect of the investments of the European funds deployed will be noticed
“This whole constellation will mean that Spain will be able to continue creating jobs,” this analyst highlighted. Enric Fernández has highlighted that expectations indicate that the European Central Bank will lower interest rates this year until they are around 3%, and that next year it will reduce them again to leave them around 2.5%.
Best performance of Spain
For this economist, Spain has “endured” the current situation better, closing the year with a growth of 2.5%, two and a half points above the euro zone. This better performance of the Spanish economy has been due to the recovery of tourism, the growth of public and private consumption and the evolution of the export of goods and services.
In addition, he has pointed out the good evolution of the labor market. “As long as the labor market continues to create jobs, the economy will go from less to more,” she said, although he has warned that the unemployment rate in Spain remains above the European average. In relation to the labor market, he has referred to the “demographic push” thanks to immigration flows.
Enric Fernández has highlighted in this sense that Spain has registered an increase in the active population of 600,000 people last year motivated by the arrival of immigrants, especially throughout Latin America, with a profile that “integrates much more quickly into the Spanish labor market “. And he has compared these flows with those that arrived in Spain in the years from 2005 to 2008, which are known “to have been very high.”
Productivity is the pending subject
Enric Fernández has warned that the “unfinished business” in the Spanish economy is productivity. And he has also pointed out the public deficit as another aspect that must be improved. “Last year it was 4%, it is high, we must correct it,” he considered. The “risks”, in his opinion, lie in the impact that the situation in the Red Sea and the US elections may have.
