The General Council of Economists has increased its forecasts for the Spanish economy this year by two tenths compared to previous estimates, up to 2.3%. This is clear from the latest ‘Financial Observatory’ and collected by Europa Press. Despite the moderation of growth in the second quarter -0.4%- and the reduction of one tenth of the growth of the previous quarter, the good expectations of the tourism sector, the moderation of inflation and the high level of occupancy suggest a positive increase in the third trimester.
Specifically, economists expect growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter of around 0.5% thanks mainly to the services sector due to the boost in tourism, whose summer campaign is expected to last until October. . However, the organization chaired by Valentín Pich has announced that the evolution of the economy in this second semester may be affected by the situation in the countries of the euro area, the main destinations for Spanish exports to which more than 65% go. from the same.
“The European situation is weaker in the global context due to the proximity of the war in Ukraine and is showing signs of slowing down,” the CGE warned. In addition, economists have drawn attention to the gradual decline in the industrial sector, with a meager 16% share of GDP today.
They maintain their forecast for the CPI at 3%
Regarding the evolution of prices, economists have highlighted that it is being more favorable in Spain than in the euro zone. Thus, economists have maintained their forecast of an increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of around 3% at the end of the year.
With respect to underlying inflation, the CGE has explained that, although it has not grown compared to the previous month, in the interannual rate it has had an increase of 6.2%, three tenths higher than the interannual rate for the month of June, thus breaking the streak of decline in the year-on-year rate since March.
It cuts its preview for the unemployment rate
On the other hand, the economists have revised downward their estimate of the unemployment rate to 11.8%. As they explain, given the strength of the services sector in these months marked by the tourist season, it is necessary to take the good employment registered so far with due prudence in terms of its maintenance in the last quarter of the year.
Regarding the debt, the CGE foresees that the debt to GDP ratio will decrease and it is expected that by the end of the year it will be around 110.5%, exceptionally due to the increase in collection and the increase in contributions for good behavior of employment, together with monitoring the policies emanating from Brussels in this regard.
Lastly, the slowdown in the economy, together with the measures to combat inflation and the increase in financial charges generated by the rise in interest rates, among other factors, mean that economists maintain their estimate of the budget deficit for 2023 at 4.4%.
