According to the initial forecasts of the agency, in 2023 the inflation rate is expected to slow down to 5.5 percent, and in 2024 to decrease to 4 percent.
“To keep the officially declared projected inflation rate during the year at 5.5 percent, the average monthly level of consumer prices is required to be around 0.45 percent, while the initial figures are on the upside.” , said. Market expert “Finmir” Anton Kravtsov.
According to him, the deterioration of the geopolitical situation and this year’s budget deficit may lead to an increase in public spending and, consequently, to the printing of additional money supply, which will accelerate inflationary processes.
Now oil prices are rising, the dollar and euro have pulled back from their highs and are falling moderately. “And if the situation does not change and there are no economic shocks, then, in all probability, in the first quarter of 2023, inflation will be 1.5 to 2 percent,” the expert said.
Geopolitical risks and Western sanctions, lower oil prices and the depreciation of the national currency will have a significant impact on inflation, on the other hand, the monetary policy of the Central Bank and the transition to domestic consumption will become deterrents. .
“Since uncertainty will remain in 2023, both politically and economically, the inflation rate at the end of the year will remain lower than last year (11.9 percent) and should not exceed 8 percent,” concluded Anton Kravtsov.
