Most experts believe that the ruble will gain a foothold in the region of 90-100 rubles to the dollar. And it will remain at this level until the end of the year.
Photo: REUTERS
However, the dollar has declined. Two days were enough for the Central Bank and the Government to reduce the intensity of passions in the exchange market. As of Wednesday’s close, less than 95 rubles to the dollar and 103 rubles to the euro were delivered. Thus, in just three days, both Western currencies fell by 8 rubles.
What happened? And what about those who have some ruble savings?
WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THE RUBLE EXCHANGE: THE RATE EFFECT AND MORE
The strengthening of the ruble was influenced by several factors at once:
First, a sharp increase in the key rate of the Central Bank – from 8.5 to 12% per annum. It led to the fact that banks increased deposit rates (for details, see “By the way”). And this made savings in rubles more profitable. People began to buy less currency, the demand for it fell, and its “price” decreased.
Second, the verbal suggestions were also helpful. The authorities hinted to currency speculators and exporters that they were about to impose restrictions on capital withdrawals or strict requirements to sell almost all foreign exchange earnings, as happened last year. The threats worked. The ruble has stabilized. Another question is for how long?
IS IT WORTH BUYING A DOLLAR NOW?
Most experts believe that the ruble will gain a foothold in the region of 90-100 rubles to the dollar. And it will remain at this level until the end of the year. But the course is changeable. Jumps up or down can always be. That is, we can see 80 rubles per dollar and a return to records of 100 rubles and more.
The course depends on many factors. It is impossible to give an exact forecast. However, most experts believe that in the next few days the ruble may strengthen a bit more. So now is not the time to buy dollars.
– It is not worth buying currency in such unstable conditions. You can buy a dollar today, for example, for 100 rubles; banks are unlikely to undersell. And tomorrow it will fall, say, to 90 rubles, and you will lose from this, – explains Alexander Safonov, vice-rector of the Financial University of the Government of the Russian Federation.
– Personally, I am waiting for a dollar at 85 rubles. That is, below 90 rubles it will be interesting to buy, says investment expert Andrey Vernikov.
According to him, this will be facilitated by the growth of export earnings with a simultaneous decrease in imports. That is, in fact, after a long phase of weakening, the ruble will go into another phase – strengthening.
But you must make decisions about buying or selling currencies on your own. Neither KP.RU analysts nor editors are responsible for this. Especially in the current, extremely unpredictable situation.
HOW AND WHERE YOU CAN BUY DOLLARS AND EUROS IN AUGUST 2023
Two methods are available: cash and non-cash. Let’s take both.
Dollars and euros can be bought in cash at many banks. Foreign currency is not lacking in the big cities, and many banks (although not all) have it. You may have to go around several banks. Another thing is that against the background of a sharp rise, exchange rates began to bite hard. The difference between buying and selling in some banks reaches 10 rubles. By the way, to find a better rate, use one of the sites that automatically compare quotes in different banks: banki.ru, sravni.ru, bankiros, etc.
– It is necessary to look for banks that offer conditions at least slightly better than the key rate of the Central Bank, – advises Alexander Safonov.
Non-cash currency can be purchased on the stock exchange. Through a brokerage account opened with any major bank. In this case, the commission will be minimal (less than 1%). It is true that you will not be able to withdraw these dollars or euros in cash; this is one of the current restrictions of the Central Bank. However, your non-cash dollars will go up (or down) against the ruble following the exchange rate.
And you can also transfer them to your own or someone else’s account in a foreign bank. But not everyone has such an opportunity. Yes, and the commissions in this case also bite.
However, if you need the currency not for a trip abroad, but only for self-indulgence, buying dollars, euros or yuan on the stock exchange is the easiest, fastest and most profitable way. In which case, the coin can be sold at any time and get rubles for it. Again, without additional commissions from the bank.
BY THE WAY
Investments become more profitable
Following the growth of the key rate of the Central Bank, Russian banks began to increase interest on deposits. They constitute 12 to 14% per year. It is true that you can put money in that percentage only for a relatively short period of time: 3 or 6 months. Banks are reinsuring: Many believe the key rate hike period is over. Now just down.
The scenario is almost the same as last spring. Then the Central Bank sharply raised rates. Stop both devaluation and hyperinflation. When the situation stabilized, the Central Bank began to gradually lower the key rate. The same is likely to be the case now.
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