The political and legal pulse between Pedro Sánchez and Carles Puigdemont is changing. During the day the sun seems to shine but at night you can no longer see the stars, even dark clouds begin to appear. From asking for what you want because there is no problem for it to be granted to you, we have moved on to “everything has a limit.” The initial attitude towards the requests of the independence movement was more of a strategy covered in openness and cordiality, so as not to start off on a bad plan by refusing everything. Now, things are different and we are moving down the path of harsh reality. On Ferraz Street – headquarters of the PSOE – and in Moncloa they are already marking their limits in the negotiations to achieve a possible investiture of Sánchez. Even socialists speak without fear of “unaffordable” positions.
The objective is for both “Junts” and ERC to abandon their claims for “maximums” and not set a time frame that accelerates the amnesty law. If Puigdemont demands that the rule be ready before the inauguration, the Government’s negotiating sources agree on moving it away. Even the “Sumar” mediator, Jaume Asens, has gone from stating that the law could be approved before Sánchez was president to acknowledging in front of the press that “that is pushing the machine a lot.” What’s more, within this electoral style of ‘every man for himself’, some socialists try to put the “death” of this change on Yolanda Díaz’s negotiators, blaming them for being novices in “issues so important and not easy to resolve.” Simply put: separatist demands for advance compliance are unworkable.
Knowing which of the two parties will give in more is a requirement that requires a lot of magnifying glass and a good eye to analyze the intentions of the adversaries, although probable future partners. In Puigdemont’s speech it was clear that his top priority is the amnesty and his collaborators in Catalonia believe that “there is room to vote for Pedro Sánchez”, as long as they do not deviate too much from the proposed objectives. The Waterloo fugitive wants to look like a legitimate president who is in exile.
After the symbolic 9/11 and the Diada, a race against time begins to obtain as many concessions as possible. Although any sensible independentist knows that Puigdemont will not achieve all his demands, but the main objective is to achieve amnesty, that is enough, at least to start and to free himself and the other accused from going to jail or to the courts. . and pay serious financial fines. However, if it is negotiated downwards it could also be the political death of JxCAT and Puigdemont, as it has been to a large extent for ERC. It is true that self-determination can wait, but it cannot be forgotten.
The former president of the Generalitat is faced with an acting president who, with his silver fox style, demonstrates great negotiating and even mocking ability, and can lift Puigdemont’s own portfolio and commitments, or even scam Pere Aragonés again with another non-existent negotiating table, but Esquerra’s is already quite tamed by the central power. Sánchez does not lie, he just changes his mind, but these changes can be very expensive for some Catalan politicians. The only separatist who still embodies a certain “Asterix” style rebellion – but without a miraculous potion – is the fugitive from Waterloo, but he can also lose that wealth if he does not play the cards right in front of him.
For the socialists, new elections no longer sound so bad or distant, although it is not the preferred option of the leader of the PSOE who knows that the elections are carried out by the devil and that it is better not to tempt fate, and if not, ask him. to Núñez Feijóo. However, if the polls, the good ones and not those of Tezanos, gave them a high percentage and an acceptable increase in votes, they could take the risk, since they also have the perfect excuse that they break off the negotiations due to Junt sy’s crazy demands. . make it very clear that they are a party loyal to Spain and do not auction off the country to anyone.
Puigdemont may realize that things change when you least expect it and new elections do not seem so profitable for him or his people, no matter how much he threatens them. HIS LIFE SAVER IS THAT Sánchez CONTINUES TO BELIEVE THAT IT IS A BAD STEP TO RESET THE BOLTS, BUT IF HE CHANGES HIS MIND, AND EVERY TIME THIS POSSIBILITY IS, THINGS WILL GET TORPERED FOR THE INDEPENDENCE, SINCE ANOTHER APPEARANCE IN JANUARY WOULD POLARIZE THE ELECTORATE IN benefit of PP and PSOE, and the useful vote would focus on both, and both Junts and ERC would lose even more votes, as well as Sumar and Vox. It is not very likely that Junts and a fugitive from Justice will be offered so many political advantages if there is a repeat election.
Everything indicates that the socialists now have better assets than the sovereigntists who feel that they can lose a unique opportunity that may not return, and life in Belgium or in prison is very hard. The Clave estimates: Are you interested in governing with 19 parties and granting an amnesty through the back door that no one accepts and that will twist the centstititoutciison and the laws, or do you prefer elections with risk but also with greater advantages? The ‘dinosaurs’ of his party – as the progressives now call Felipe González, Guerra and company for saying what they think and expressing themselves freely – are clear about it and have told it without hesitation: the Constitution and the Transition are the heritage of the entire society and not property of a single party. The main affected person, Sánchez, also needs to be clear. To paraphrase Monterroso and his famous story: “And when he woke up, Puigdemont was still there.”
