“They (the amendments) are already in the Duma. Yesterday they were presented to the Duma. The committee tomorrow,” the TASS deputy minister quotes.
Damper tuning provides a 50% reduction in payouts. The new rules are expected to go into effect on September 1. The buffer mechanism compensates part of the difference between the export prices of petroleum products and the internal prices. Oil companies receive money from the budget when export prices exceed the indicative price set by the state. And, conversely, oil companies pay the budget if export prices are below the indicative prices, but this only happened in 2020, when oil prices in the world fell to their lowest values.
This year, on average, the oil industry spent from the budget from 79 to 109 billion rubles per month. This is, on average, almost two times less than last year’s payments, but the budget deficit has already exceeded 3 trillion rubles, so the government wants to reduce these costs.
According to most experts, the damper adjustment will lead to an increase in wholesale, and then retail prices for automobile fuel.
As the head of the National Energy Security Fund Konstantin Simonov previously pointed out to RG, if the adjustment is carried out, as planned, in the fall, and such tough measures are taken as announced – a reduction in payments in 50%, then prices will go up again, even in retail. There can be no miracles here.
According to Kirill Rodionov, an expert at the Institute for the Development of Complex Fuel and Power Technologies, payments for the damper in the first half of 2023 have already decreased by 58% (to 542.6 billion rubles, compared with the year past). A further reduction in subsidies coupled with an increase in excise duties will inevitably hit oil refining margins, which have already been hit by rising transportation costs associated with the reversal of exports to Asia and the Middle East. .
But since gas station prices are controlled by the state, which tries to keep them from rising above inflation, the gas stations will end up suffering. The profitability of your work will fall to zero or enter negative territory, as it did in 2021.
Since the end of December last year, gasoline at gas stations has risen in price by 3.1%, slightly higher than inflation – 2.97%. On the stock market, growth is more serious, AI-92 prices have grown by almost 70% since January and AI-95 by 63%.
In addition, the amendments sent to the State Duma provide for an increase in excise duties on gasoline and diesel within the limits of inflation in the next two years, as well as the transfer of benefits for depleted deposits.
