On Wednesday, August 23, the next leaders of the countries that make up the BRICS block -Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa- will meet in person in Johannesburg at the group’s annual summit, for the first time since the pandemic broke out. of covid. The main objective of the assembly, according to the Bloomberg consensus, is to recruit more members to the bloc to strengthen its global weight, with Chinese President Xi Jinping as the main promoter. Although South Africa and Russia have also shown great interest in achieving this growth. In the same way there will be talks on how to accelerate a move away from the dollar, trying to increase the use of local currencies for commercial exchanges.
Not only the leaders of the Member States will participate. Heads of State from more than 30 African countries will attend as observers, along with others from the southern hemisphere of the planet. According to the South African ambassador for Asia and the BRICS, Anil Sooklal, more than 20 countries have requested accession to the bloc. In addition, he will attend the António Guterres, UN Secretary General, summit, where he will urge cooperation in the face of crises and meet with various leaders on the sidelines of the event.
China and Russia are the members most interested in the enlargement, however, there is no consensus in the group. South Africa is also favorable, although it is not so optimistic. However, India is the most reticent country. They believe that the accession of new states to the block should take place gradually since they consider that the expansion will be carried out by the group as a speaker for China, with which it has had problems on its borders for a long time. “China and India rarely agree on anything, which is a fundamental problem.” said Jim O’Neill, the former chief economist at Goldman Sachs Inc.
Brazil, according to officials familiar with the bloc’s internal negotiations, is cautious about admitting new members as it does not want to lose its alignment with the West. Although President Lula da Silva stated that he wants the BRICS to be stronger both politically and financially.
Despite the great growth of their economies, the BRCIS still do not have much global political influence since they began holding summits more than 15 years ago. However, from China they have seen in the current fragmentation of the world order an opportunity to increase their power. The tensions between the Asian country and the US, added to the different global opinions on the war between Ukraine and Russia, predict changes in the distribution of the cake of world power, and Xi Jinping and Putin seek to get the largest part.
The summit that will be held throughout the week could approve the joining of a new member to the group. Among the list of possible candidates are Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Egypt. If they manage to expand the block, they will manage to represent more than 50% of world production, according to estimates by different economic experts from Bloomberg. That is the objective of China, which has all the instruments in its hand to become the first world power.
To date, the divisions among the BRICS members have limited the bloc’s ability to reach a consensus with which to increase its influence in institutions such as the IMF or the World Bank. They are still far from reaching the economic and political power of the West. Since they joined, the BRICS development banks have not reached a fraction of what the IMF and the World Bank have disbursed. In addition, the suggestions to create a common currency have not reached anywhere either.
Putin will participate from a distance
The Russian leader will be the only one who will attend the meeting electronically due to the arrest warrant that exists for war crimes issued by the International Criminal Court. The meeting provides the Russian tycoon with a new opportunity to present a new narrative of the invasion of Ukraine. Brazil, South Africa, China and India have been reluctant to ally with Zelensky’s country, although they have not openly supported Russia either.
From the European Union considering that the expansion of the BRICS would weaken the group, according to sources. Although they are aware of the opportunity and capacity that Vladimir Putin has to use the summit to be held in South Africa as an international platform.
