In his opinion, Gazprom’s statement is a warning shot into the air. First of all, for the Europeans, thanks to whose efforts this transit is still preserved.
Earlier, the head of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, on the air of the Rossiya 24 television channel, said that if the Ukrainian Naftogaz continues to attack the Russian company with lawsuits, sanctions may be imposed on it.
According to him, Gazprom believes that arbitration with Naftogaz is pointless. The Ukrainian company is trying to arrange lawsuits for the transit of gas to Europe, but at the same time it behaves unconstructively and violates the obligations of the contract.
In response, the European Commission stated that they continue to diversify supplies, away from imports of Russian energy resources.
According to European data, in the first half of this year, 5.9 billion cubic meters of gas were pumped through Ukraine to the EU. That is, no more than 14-15 billion cubic meters were expected for the whole year, taking into account the possible increase in pumping in autumn and early winter. Compared to previous years’ volumes, this is minuscule, but even such a decline in imports can prove critical for the European market.
Nobody has any illusions about the European market, Grivach points out. Gazprom’s new strategy was recently approved, in which the share of the European market is excluded from the key indicators. If the transit stops, Austria, Slovakia, Italy, Ukraine and Moldova, as well as Transnistria, will have trouble getting gas.
In addition, Ukraine will completely lose transit payments, Grivach clarifies. As for the possible losses of the Russian side, according to the expert, it will not work to count them “in the forehead”. First of all, it is likely that part of the volumes will be transferred to Turkish Stream. Second, a reduction in gas inflows to Europe is likely to cause a further jump in prices compared to what they should be in the presence of transit through Ukraine. Especially this coming winter. That is, by supplying less, both Gazprom and the budget can receive more.
