The average annual dollar exchange rate in 2023 will be 85.2 rubles. As the department noted, today “the ruble is seeking a new equilibrium, based on the current dynamics of the trade balance. The demand for different currencies is changing and serious structural changes are taking place.” They also indicated that the probability of a scenario in which the dollar could be worth 70 or 80 rubles is “insignificant.”
It should be noted that the Ministry of Economic Development also raised the inflation forecast in the Russian Federation for 2023 from 5.3% to 7.5%, and for 2024 – from 4% to 4.5%. At the same time, a return to the target value of 4% is expected in 2025-2026, a ministry representative told RG. “The increase in the level of inflation next year already includes issues of tariff indexation,” he noted.
On September 12, the Russian government’s budget commission reviewed and generally supported the updated macro forecast.
Recall that earlier the Central Bank of the Russian Federation allowed to return to the discussion on reducing the inflation target from the current 4% after inflation and inflation expectations stabilize. The vice president of the Bank of Russia, Alexey Zabotkin, spoke about this.
