The Ibex 35 is one session away from closing July, a month in which slackness and curves have occurred constantly over the last four weeks. However, it was not until the final stretch when volatility did its thing, pushing the Spanish stock market reference to break resistance and place itself in the zone of annual maximums and take another step in the recovery of the pre-Covid level, although it still It remains to reach 10,000 points. Close to the barrier of 9,700 points, the selective against the second part of 2023 in unexplored territory for the last three years.
After accumulating a rise of 17.7% so far this year, the analysts consulted agree on the forecast: the Ibex 35 must make a stop along the way and, although it can avoid falls in the semester, it will moderate its advance. “The stock markets in general, including the Spanish one, have run a lot in the first part of 2023, so now they should not take a breather,” says Finaccess’s co-director of investments, Alfonso de Gregorio. The expert points out that the ‘rally’ that took place in the parquets after a disastrous 2022 attends to a rotation of portfolios more than to money inflows, since investment has moved towards fixed income, which has become the asset for excellence of the year thanks to the rise in interest rates.
Precisely, the course of monetary policy both in the United States and in the euro area will be one of the key factors that determine the future of the markets. With central banks ‘data dependent’ on inflation figures and a mixed course of economic activity, since GDP is picking up in the US country, while in the single currency region it shows a little more weakness, investment banking coincident that the cycle of rises of the reference rates of money is near.
Although Jerome Powell has resumed them after the June break, he is optimistic that the idea of a ‘soft landing’ for the economy is taking shape, in the case of Christine Lagarde, the change in tone of her meeting on the Thursday in which it has opened the door even to stop the highest rate increase in history next September can act as a boost for the Ibex 35, if the high banking concentration of the index is taken into account.
Two key data for the evolution of the banking business have been published this week. One of them is the ECB’s loan survey, which shows a reduction in the demand for credit by companies to historical lows since the beginning of the series in 2003. In this sense, at the national level, bank delinquency it rebounded last May to 3.59% from 3.55% the previous month, a slight increase to which De Gregorio warned that it is convenient to follow the track. Although ‘a priori’ the analysts consulted do not anticipate that it will be necessary to raise the alert voice, they advise to be vigilant.
With all this, there are expectations that Spanish banks can go back further on the stock market, as shown by the ‘Bloomberg’ consensus with possible twelve-month terms ranging from 29.1% of Bankinter to 16% of BBVA. The forecasts were adjusted upwards in the case of entities such as Sabadell, which aspires to end the year with a profit of 1,000 million euros, an unprecedented level to date, and the reappreciation of credit portfolios, are some of the possible catalysts assets that play in their favor, says Nuria Álvarez, an analyst at Renta 4. “The good trend of the half-year results is not reflected in the prices,” he qualifies.
Without losing sight of the banking sector, Víctor Peiró, director of analysis at GVC Gaesco, sees moderate increases between now and the end of the year. Reason for which he chooses to “be cautious” and looks at the ‘utilities’ as a trick for the Spanish stock market in the event that the banking route runs out if the rate break in September materializes. “I see the Ibex going, but to a lesser extent than the one registered up to now,” he adds. On his side, from IG, Diego Morín warns that the “weakness” of the economy in the short term, can wreak havoc on the Ibex, given that a significant part of its values are cyclical, among which tourist companies such as Meliá, Amadeus, Aena or IAG.
Without forgetting the companies linked to the energy sector, an area of activity that is currently trading cheap. This is the case of Acciona Energía (-20.3%) Solaria (-16.8%) or Repsol (-7.4%), which have lagged behind and recorded annual losses as a result of the latest corrections, as well as the companies listed in the telecommunications and technology sector, such as Telefónica, Indra and Cellnex Telecom, which have posted double-digit increases since the beginning of the year, this week’s rally is fueled by the semi-annual results they have presented . Another example of discounted securities are the Socimis -Merlin and Colonial-, which have been penalized by the increase in interest rates.
The stop on the road that analysts are talking about could already be giving signs of materializing. With data at the close of the markets this Friday, the Ibex 35 reaps a monthly revaluation that barely reaches 1%, after registering a boost of 6% in June. The slight advance comes from the aforementioned Indra, which flies more than 16%, as well as Fluidra (+13.4%), Unicaja Banco (+11.9%) and Grifols (+11.9%). On the corrections side, in addition to Acciona (-10%) and Enagás (-9.4%), the brake on Inditex stands out, which fell 2.1% in July from the highs, as well as Amadeus (-5, 6%). after being the great tractors of the index. In this scenario, the potential of the Ibex is still in vogue and is already lowering 11,100, a level that, if it were reached, would reach an eight-year high.
