On July 21, the next season of the Russian Football Championship began. Four rounds have already been completed, so it’s time to draw the first conclusions and give a forecast: will any statistical RPL record be broken in the 2023/2024 season?
The best predictions for today.
Who will knock Zenith off the top?
The current RPL champion holds two records. The St. Petersburg club managed to score 76 goals in the 2020/2021 season, and a year earlier, Zenit scored 72 points. Who can reach such a level in the 2023/2024 season? Based on the results of four rounds, CSKA, Spartak and Krylya Sovetov each scored 11 goals (an average of 2.75 per game).
Instead of Rakhimov, Cherchesov notes:
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Spartak and CSKA players are the most stable in terms of creating and implementing scoring chances. The footballers of the Samara club immediately scored five goals in a home match with Rostov, and then a recession followed.
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In the RPL, there has been a trend towards performance improvement. More and more clubs are moving away from defensive tactics in favor of more open formations. Even the “parking bus” under the control of Sergei Yuran, the players of “Paris NN” scored two goals in the fourth round of the championship.
It turns out that teams that try to play in a positional attack get an advantage. In this case, the record of “Zenith” in the number of goals in jeopardy. Bookmakers offer to play a similar outcome at odds of 4.00.
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If the clubs began to pay more attention to attacking actions, then, perhaps, the overall performance will decrease. Last season, the RPL scored 730 goals. The level of performance in the defensive formations of the clubs is reduced, which contributes to more goals.
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Following the results of four rounds of the RPL, the teams scored 103 goals together. An average of 3.22 goals per game in the 2023/2024 season. If the players don’t slow down, they will reach a fantastic 770 goals for the season and play a coefficient of 4.00.
The referees shoot the penalties
The match of the second round “Akhmat” – CSKA will be remembered by football fans for a long time. No, not five goals scored at all. Chief referee Bezborodov signaled the “point” five times during the match, pinning violations of the rules in the teams’ penalty area.
CSKA striker Fyodor Chalov took three penalties and Konate, an Akhmat player, scored twice from the penalty spot. Note that the players emerged victorious from the duel with the goalkeepers and made their attempts.
After the match we decided to look at the RPL records, suddenly this match will be among the leaders in designated penalties. Indeed, before the meeting of the second round of the 2023/2024 season, Akhmat – CSKA, the record belonged to the game Tambov – CSKA. The meeting of the 2020/2021 season ended with a score of 2: 1 in favor of the army team, all goals were scored from the 11-meter mark.
Is it possible that in one of the matches of the 2023/2024 season the referee signals the 11-meter mark six times? In this case, the coefficient 15.0 will play.
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It is more profitable to consider the club record for the number of penalties taken during the championship by a factor of 5.00. Until now, Valery Karpin and Rostov are ahead. Let us remember that in the 2022/2023 season, the coach of the Russian national team was harshly criticized, since 15 times his pupils approached the 11-meter mark.
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The record for the total number of penalties awarded was also set last season. 122 times the referees recorded a violation of the rules in the penalty area and signaled a shot from 11 meters. During the four rounds of the 2023/2024 championship, the players have already come close to the “point” 17 times. If the record is broken, the odds of 7.00 will be played.
Fedotov will bypass Karpin
CSKA rebuilt the tactical scheme this season. Head coach Vladimir Fedotov allows the players more freedom in the final stage of the attack. The army team with a lot of desire goes to dribble in the rival area, which is forced to commit a foul.
CSKA players have already scored four penalties in four matchdays. They have a good chance of overtaking Rostov and becoming RPL champions in the number of 11-meter kicks in a season. The players of “Wings of the Soviets” and “Akhmat” made three hits from the “point”, which can join the race for the record.
Tender: in the 2023/2024 season, the Rostov record for the number of penalties will be broken by a coefficient of 5.00.
Express with a coefficient of 10.75.
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Forecast for the match “Rubin” – “Wings of the Soviets” with a coefficient of 2.00.
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Forecast for the match “Baltika” – “Ural” with a coefficient of 3.10.
