Although Israel claims to have caused “minor” damage, Tehran was generally satisfied with the results of the action.
Revenge, apparently, will not be cold: Israel plans to respond to the Iranian attack in the next 48 hours, multiple sources say. However, Tel Aviv had enough time to develop such plans. They are now discussing the “finishing touches” with their allies.
KP.RU asked experts how they assess the Iranian attacks on Israel and whether this conflict is likely to escalate.
Leonid Tsukanov, expert of the Russian Council for International Affairs, consultant of the PIR Center:
– The Iranian attack was large-scale: 185 drones, 36 cruise missiles and 110 surface-to-surface missiles were launched. Iran’s Iraqi, Syrian and Yemeni proxy forces also joined the implementation of the retaliatory action (proxy forces are external formations acting in accordance with the plans of the “patron” state – Ed.).
For comparison: during Operation Martyr Soleimani against the United States in 2020, the Iranians fired, according to various sources, 15 to 22 missiles.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps described the results of the operation as “more successful than expected”: in particular, a hit was confirmed on the Israeli Ramon air base (southern district). The facilities of the Nevatim air base (southern district) and a certain “information center” on the Syrian-Israeli border, which participated in the coordination of the attack on Damascus, were attacked.
Although Israel claims to have caused “minor” damage, Tehran was generally satisfied with the results of the action.
— Why did Iran decide to launch a major attack, knowing that there would most likely be a response?
– The decision was dictated, first of all, by the need to put an end to the situation with the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Furthermore, the Iranians probably did not rule out carrying out further Israeli operations against their military advisors, in light of the ongoing confrontation in Gaza.
Secondly, it was important for Tehran to demonstrate its willingness to take risks in the interests of the “Axis of Resistance”, and not simply shift the burden to loyal groups. This message was largely directed “at an internal audience.”
Iran’s attack was massive: 185 drones, 36 cruise missiles and 110 surface-to-surface missiles were launched.
Photo: REUTERS
Even the name of the Iranian operation (“True Promise”) encrypts the message that Iran is not wasting words and is putting previously expressed threats into practice.
Now Tehran has announced that it has no intention of aggravating the situation in the region, but only if there is no aggression from Israel. Thus, the Islamic Republic “transferred responsibility in advance” to the opponent for a possible deterioration of the regional situation.
—How do you value Israel’s actions to protect itself?
– Of course, the high level of development of the Israeli military-industrial complex is difficult to argue. Furthermore, American resources quickly became involved in defense coordination. Israel managed, according to external estimates, to stop at least 70% of the targets.
But no air defense or missile defense system guarantees 100% reflection; This explains the successes of Iranian missiles against sensitive targets in the Southern District. Furthermore, Iran, through such a massive attack, could well conduct a “stress test” on Israel’s defense system to identify its weaknesses.
— Tehran considers that the conflict is resolved. But will Israel respond, and how seriously?
– This action is unlikely to be the last in the asymmetric conflict between Iran and Israel. Of course, it is premature to talk about constant attacks of such a scale on Israeli territory, but the “fire of harassment” from the power is quite real. Tehran’s next moves depend largely on the actions of the Israelis.
Israel is unlikely to undertake any serious escalation, such as attacks on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Largely because the United States (whose facilities in the Middle East may become a priority target for Iranian proxies if the conflict expands) opposes such a development of events. Israel is not interested in further damaging relations with its strategic ally.
The Middle East seems unlikely to descend into a full-scale armed conflict.
Previously, Leonid Tsukanov also told KP that some of Iran’s most important facilities are probably located underground. An airstrike or cyberattack is unlikely to cause them irreparable damage, but it will give Tehran free rein to retaliate.
“ISRAEL CANNOT OVERCOME IRAN ALONE”
Abbas Juma, international journalist:
“Iran clashed directly with Israel, although most experts called the use of Iranian proxy forces the most logical scenario. Although both Lebanese and Yemenis were present in the attack. That is, the attack was coordinated with all allies.
Tehran’s long silence, which skeptics saw as weakness and reluctance to start a war, was actually due to the complexity of planning. Furthermore, the frozen response was a tool of psychological pressure. Tehran exhausted Israelis with long waits.
In an official statement, the IRGC reported that it had attacked targets in Israel, including the air base from which the plane that attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus took off. Tehran also said the issue can be considered resolved, but if Israel makes another mistake, “the response will be more severe.” The country will respond with redoubled force to any attack on Iranian territory.
Now the main question is: how will Israel respond and respond? If we consider the scenario of further escalation, it will not be able to confront Iran alone. Therefore, much will depend on the position of the United States.
Washington almost immediately asked its ally not to take any radical measures without prior consultations. So the United States still has a chance to reduce tensions.
However, Israel did not attack the Iranian consulate in Damascus, crossing all red lines, so as not to achieve what it wanted from the Americans. Apparently, Netanyahu still hopes to drag the United States into a war with Iran…
Previously, Juma had already stressed in a conversation with KP that the worst case scenario is “a Third World War with the threat of the conflict leading to the nuclear stage.”
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